Title: Introduction: Causality
Course: UGQuants (SSPS) > Section: Causality

This is the introduction to module 6, which deals with causality.

Often, we do not just want to find out whether two variables are associated, but whether one causes the other. This is more complex than it first appears, since patterns of causation are rarely simple and we usually have to rely upon indirect evidence.

Almost any rational understanding of the social world (as opposed to pre-Enlightenment conceptions of magic or imminent revelation) implies some theory and knowledge of causes.  The majority of these causes and their effects may barely be visible, especially to individual social actors conscious only of their personal experiences, but good social scientists try their best to uncover them, especially the unintended or unanticipated consequences of actions and beliefs.

What is most important to grasp, is that we should always treat evidence of correlation with a mixture of interest and suspicion. Correlation may be evidence of a causal process at work, but it does not have to be! Causal processes reveal themselves in correlations between variables, but the simple existence of correlation is not proof of the existence of causation. Knowing how to identify situations where correlation is not causation is fundamental to the social sciences.